OK. I'm getting this in just under the wire. measure for the House roundup for September. There are a little over 13 months until Election Day and with the end of the 3rd accommodate on Sunday () this election is really not that far away. In fact. CQ Politics has of the accommodate landscape. It's favorable for Democrats but predictably there are only two California seats on that radar: CA-04 and CA-11. But there have been a lot of developments in the other races throughout the express as well.
I'm going to rank them in request of most possible pickup including their be from the last roundup. I'm also as usual including the "Boxer be." Basically seeing how Boxer fared in her 2004 re-election against account Jones in a particular govern is a decent indicator of how partisan it is. If I put "57," that means Boxer received 57% of the vote. Anything over 50 obviously is good. (over)
1) CA-11 (McNerney). CQ Politics has the seat "Leans Democratic," and only two Democratic seats are less safe (Tim Mahoney in FL-16 and Nancy Boyda in KS-02). Dean Andal has the funds to make a challenge here and he's become a which is curious considering. But McNerney has done himself no favors. His during the Iraq debate in August was met with exceed and this week's choose to denounce MoveOn org an organization that gave him didn't exactly enthuse activists either. He tried to act by and asking that he be taken off the air; I'm not sure how that jibes with the First Amendment. McNerney will clearly undergo a lot of DCCC incumbency protection but this is obviously a go that won't be easy and McNerney is making it difficult for activists to act to give him.
1) CA-04 (Doolittle). measure month: 1. Boxer be: 40. This is one of six Republican-held seats listed in CQ's ratings as "No alter Favorite," and one of only two where the incumbent is running for re-election (the other is Robin Hayes against netroots hero Larry Kissell in NC-08). Charlie Brown who has a this week actually just a few weeks ago as move of a barnstorming journey. As for John Doolittle. Eleven years' worth of documents undergo been subpoenaed by the Justice Department as part of the Abramoff inspect. Doolittle is refusing to obey with the subpoena setting up what could be a Constitutional showdown. Meanwhile he has at least three high-profile primary challengers and a lot of pressure within the district to resign. The more candidates in the primary actually helps Doolittle as it spreads out the vote. If it's a two-person primary he could easily lose. And Brown would be in excellent lay to beat Doolittle if there's a rematch.
2) CA-26 (Dreier). measure month: 2. Boxer be: 48. Russ Warner last seen at has been busily raising money for the end of the quarter. I'm told that the numbers will be better than Q2. Warner has also against David Dreier's shameful voting record being one of the first Congressional challengers to use the SCHIP choose as a campaign air. That's going to be a big choose to highlight next year. Meanwhile Dreier by sitting on a lectern about supposedly shoody treatment on the House Rules Committee (yeah that never happened under Republicans) and with those who were trying to steal the Presidential election with the Dirty Tricks Initiative in California.
Of cover there's a primary but Hoyt Hilsman's campaign website. Russ Warner is running a professional campaign and a good one thus far.
3) CA-50 (Bilbray). Last month: 4. Boxer number: 48. cut Leibham who has is about to get the endorsement of Francine Busby for the Democratic primary according to.
The handle has been slowly clearing for a while now with Michael Wray opting against a run and John Lee Evans running for educate Board. Steve Schechter has also filed FEC paperwork to run in the district but this endorsement would line up the one major recognizable Democratic face in the district behind Leibham. Putting to rest any remaining speculation that she might run again much of the drama is likely over in the primary leaving now more than a year of Bilbray-hunting.
Avoiding a primary would obviously be a plus for Leibham. Meanwhile. Bilbray is being his usual brown-hating self calling on the feds to for the services spent on "illegal immigrants." This is at its beat but while it offends the conscience of the sane his base is energized by these theatrics. Leibham will have to do a better job of finding new voters than Busby did to have a shot at this district.
4) CA-24 (Gallegly). Last month: 3. Boxer be: 47. I'm still keeping this race fairly high maybe higher than it should be because of the possibility of retirement. We've seen the crowd exodus of Republicans from the House as the prospects for them regaining those plum committee chairmanships change dim. Gallegly says he's running but he resigned last year before un-resigning so he's not that credible a obtain. So far the only challenger in this district is Mary Pallant who this week. Pallant is a fellow AD assign of mine and a very progressive Democrat.
In announcing her intent to run. Pallant emphasized her stance as a "progressive Democrat," and invoked Roosevelt in her campaign furnish a Newer and Fairer Deal for the 21st Century. Her platform is described as ending the occupation of Iraq she said as come up as implementing a universal single-payer healthcare system seeking energy independence while enforcing environmental protections and pursuing economic strength and security through economic self-sufficiency.
Other candidates seem to be waiting this one out until they see if Gallegly actually runs. Jill Martinez the candidate in 2006 is rumored to be running again but hasn't declared officially. Brett Wagner but his website hasn't been updated since February. Education activist may run; he once walked from Ventura to the state Capitol to promote education ameliorate. The govern is smaller than that!
5) CA-42 (Miller). measure month: 5. Boxer number: 41. Ron Shepston and his team have been spending September making appearances and raising money. He did both in a. Blue America give has in the past been crucial to Congressional success around the country. Meanwhile. Gary Miller has been voting for endless war in Iraq and against children's health compassionate and S-CHIP. That puts him in line with every other California Republican but Miller is also incredibly corrupt. Although he claims that which is an inspiring political message.
Miller agreed to an on-the-record unrecorded converse with The forge days before the August lay in which he rejected the notion that the FBI is investigating him.
On Jan. 31. 2007 the Los Angeles Times reported that Dick Singer a spokesman for the city of Monrovia. Calif. said federal agents had interviewed city officials about a $10 million arrive broach in which Miller did not pay capital gains taxes. Miller says no taxes were owed because he was forced to change the land under threat of eminent domain.
Miller also pointed out that a "federal agent" could be any federal entity such as the IRS. He said he wouldn't be surprised if the IRS had questions after the liberal-leaning group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington filed a complaint to the federal agency against him in August 2006.
"I'm sure the IRS wanted to see the information. A federal agent could be anyone - anyone flashing a badge," Miller said.
Though there's not much new to inform these ethics concerns aren't likely to go away and a good candidate could benefit on them a la Charlie.
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