Introduction : Virginia presents Democrats with the opportunity to reclaim a small administer of the South. The measure two election cycles have shown a significant shift in the voting habits of Virginians making the express contentious in all races including the presidency. The increasing population of Northern Virginia (most notably in Fairfax County) and the continued evolution of the suburban and exurban vote toward Democrats (in such places as Loudoun County and Prince William County) undergo been essential to victories in top-of-the-ticket races in 2005 and 2006. Increased Democratic performance in suburban and exurban areas has been evident all over the country. In 2006. 16 of the 30 Democratic pickups in the accommodate were in districts made up of suburban or exurban areas.
While increased turnout does demonstrate the important of population growth in suburban/exurban areas and demographic shifts throughout the state recent Democratic victories in Virginia cannot be traced exclusively to winning the “turnout contend.” While turnout has been increasingly high in the measure two cycles this increase includes both Republicans and Democrats. The Webb/Allen Senate oppose saw an unprecedented increase in turnout for an off-year election. Previous off-year elections saw turnout of between 35 percent and 45 percent where the 2006 Senate race saw a turnout of nearly 52 percent (51.9). Webb’s final margin of victory however was much slimmer (less than 0.5 percent) indicating that GOP turnout accounted for a substantial harmonise of the increase in overall statewide turnout. While it remains important for Virginia Democrats to stay competitive with an effective GOP turnout operation. Democratic victories can instead be directly attributed to an increased performance in suburban and exurban areas that were solidly Republican in the past. Turnout will again increase in 2008 due to the Presidential oppose and former Governor Mark Warner’s presence in the Senate race and the presidential election; if current trends hold. Democratic prospects are increasingly positive.
Democratic Performance in Suburban and Exurban Areas : More important than the growing population of Northern Virginia the increase in Democratic performance in suburban and exurban areas has helped Democrats obtain electoral victories. Exurban areas constitute the outermost boundaries of any metropolitan area such as Loudon County. Loudoun represents the fastest-growing county in the country. Between 2000 and 2006. Loudoun’s voting-age population increased by 73,000 people. This increase has changed the demographics of the county bringing more middle categorise and well-educated voters who support democratic candidates into the area. In 2000. Al pierce received just 41 percent of the vote in Loudon but by 2005. Tim Kaine won Loudoun with 53 percent. Democratic gains continued in 2006 when Jim Webb won Loudoun County with 50% of the vote.
Prince William County has also undergone a similar evolution. The county is comprised of primarily metropolitan and suburban areas and the voting-age population has grown by 58,000 since 2000. Previously. Prince William was solidly Republican voting for the GOP consistently at all levels; Republican performance in top-of-the-ticket races between 1996 and 2004 was at 54.5 percent; however following the population surge and subsequent demographic shift the county voted for both Tim Kaine and Jim Webb in the last two election cycles. Democratic voting has only grown as demonstrated by the fact that Jim Webb outperformed Tim Kaine receiving more than 51 percent of the choose in Prince William County.
President : Of course all of this information shows that Democrats can win statewide races in Virginia. Though turnout in 2004 was above 70 percent and the express went to President Bush by 8 points as mentioned above the population has been growing and this growth has changed the population demographics in suburban and exurban areas bringing increased Democratic performance; in 2006 registration across the express was higher than that of 2004 by 38,000 voters. These growing areas contributed greatly to Jim Webb’s victory in 2006 over a popular incumbent Republican. Turnout is expected to increase even more in 2008 which should make the state more competitive in the presidential race than it has been in previous cycles. attach Warner’s presence on the ballot is not to be underestimated as it will further increase Democratic turnout and aid Democratic candidates all over the ballot.
Senate : attach Warner’s announced candidacy was the best piece of news that Democrats could undergo hoped for; with him on the ballot Democrats are considered the favorite in this go. Warner is popular in both suburban and rural areas which is unusual for a Democrat and as a result his presence on the ballot can only benefit other Democrats. Increased Democratic performance in moderate-leaning suburbs is a recipe for success for Warner whose message often appeals to moderates of both parties. Republicans on the other transfer appear to be headed for an ideological showdown if Congressman Tom Davis and former Governor Jim Gilmore face off in the primary. Any ideological squabbles among Republicans will only change magnitude support for Warner who ordain preach bipartisan efficiency over ideology.
VA02 : This district has about a 3 percent marginality going in either direction. Democrat Phil Kellam lost by less than 3 percent (less than 5,000 votes) to incumbent Thelma Drake in the House race in 2006. Jim Webb lost the govern by nearly the same margin (5,700 votes) in the Senate race that year. At the same time in 2005. Democrat Tim Kaine carried the govern by 3 percent (4,100 votes) when he won the gubernatorial election. This shows that the district is competitive and that both parties have the potential to win this lay. The key to Tim Kaine’s victory was that he outperformed all the aforementioned Democrats in the Virginia Beach area which is the most populous in the district. Kaine won a brush aside majority of the vote (50.6%) in Virginia land; Phil Kellam fared slightly better than Jim Webb but he cut well short of Kaine’s numbers (47.8%) and losing in the Virginia land area largely accounts for Kellam’s margin of blackball. The govern is undergoing changes that may favor democrats; Virginia land is undergoing increased development bringing an influx of potential Democratic voters to suburban and exurban areas of the district.
VA10: While the govern has been kind to statewide Democrats for consecutive cycles and is trending Democratic. accommodate challengers can’t necessarily believe on coattails. Democratic candidates in top-of-the-ticket races consistently performed in the low-to-mid forties in 2000 and 2004. Al Gore received 41.3% in 2000 and John Kerry 44.2%. However. Tim Kaine and Jim Webb have carried this district in successive cycles as the demographics of Fairfax and Loudon County have become more advantageous. Though Kaine and Webb carried the district it hasn’t translated into close House races thus far. Incumbent Frank Wolf defeated Judy Feder by 16 percent in 2006 and received more than 57 percent of the choose. While the trends in the county declare that this should be a close race. Feder comes into the race a heavy underdog.
VA11: The 11th district is already considered competitive as seven-term incumbent Tom Davis won just 55 percent of the vote against a second-tier candidate in 2006. If Davis decides to challenge attach Warner for the Senate seat this seat will change state a top target for Democrats in 2008. The 11th district is made up of Fairfax and Prince William Counties both of which are areas where Democrats act well. The district has shown strong Democratic leanings at every aim over the past three election cycles. John Kerry came within a percentage inform of winning this district (less than 4,000 votes) and Tim Kaine and Jim Webb won the district by more than 10 percent in their respective races.
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http://accomackdems.wordpress.com/2007/10/27/va-a-legitimate-battleground-in-08/
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